Stuck Inside The Beltway With The Mobile Blues Again

There are two overriding themes to this year's NAB Radio Show (Now Featuring Extra RAB!). The first is that mobile media -- cell phones -- are the future and they're taking over and we'd better get on board and PLEASE LORD MAKE THEM PUT FM TUNERS IN CELL PHONES OR WE'RE DEAD. The other is, to borrow an extremely annoying catchphrase from a former radio talk show host, "we're good enough, we're smart enough, and, doggone it, people like us." See? I just saved you the trip right there.

All right, there's more, but, for the most part, that's what I got from the convention thus far. I'm not going to dwell on the FM-in-cell-phones part of the equation; I've previously explained my position well enough, and the disconnect between the proponents and the general public is so obvious to everyone but the proponents that it renders further arguments about the issue pointless. They're doing what they think they need to do to preserve their investment in the traditional antenna-and-transmitter infrastructure, and they think it'll grow their audience because, you know, according to statistics generated from someone's backside, it happened in Europe or Brazil or someplace, maybe. For the sake of the industry, I hope they're right. I don't think they're right at all, but, well, good luck with that, guys.

(Interestingly, on the same day the convention was focused on the game-changing, life-altering nature of smartphones, a survey was released saying that only 17 percent of Americans own smartphones, and it's less than 25 percent for even younger users. You might assume from the hype that everyone in the world carries either an iPhone or an Android phone, but the vast majority don't. They're still too expensive, for one thing. The business is, however, clearly moving in that direction. It's where most people project the real growth to be. And it's where I sense a lot of conventioneers wish they were)

The two words that keep coming up at this convention are "mobile" and "digital." Everything is all about mobile, or digital, or, if you want people to go into a drooling frenzy, mobile AND digital. There's a combination of fear, desperation, and hope in the dialogue over the future of radio and the impact of digital and mobile. I think that the people running the industry finally understand the essentials: Internet and mobile delivery are the future, radio needs to be a part of that, and they need to get moving on the plans. Some are already doing that. Still, the level of creativity and innovation, either for traditional radio or for new media, isn't where it needs to be; Radio is in some ways creatively stuck in the 1990s while everyone else has moved on. There hasn't been a truly innovative format developed in quite a while, both for music and for talk. This is not really where the action is right now.

Still, there's life in radio yet, and I heard several pep talks here, touting the fact that radio has managed to survive thus far. "We are winning in radio this year," insisted the RAB's Jeff Haley, "and it feels pretty good." That's based on 6 percent year-to-year growth, but that's also growth from a very bad previous year. If an NFL team goes 1-15 in 2009 and 2-14 in 2010, that's a 50% increase in wins, but that doesn't make you a "winner." Later, a panel of CEOs repeated the growth thing and proclaimed that the recession, for radio, is over. The problem is that the growth has come in national sales, the least critical for local broadcasters (and practically irrelevant in smaller markets). The sun isn't shining all that brightly on radio, but the rain's diminished to a light drizzle, and you can't blame the people in charge for taking that as a victory for now.

So that's what I got from this gathering, that and a couple of Phillies-Nationals games and a Five Guys burger. Any convention that includes Your National League Eastern Division Champions and Five Guys is a win in my book.

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If anything happens during what's left of this convention, I'll talk about it here next week. I hope something DOES happen. If not, I'm going to be hurting for material. When next week's column consists of nothing but my detailed analysis of the National League playoffs, you'll know just how desperate things got.

Perry Michael Simon
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All Access News-Talk-Sports
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